By Greg Mumm

Both Argentina and Australia have positioned themselves along with New Zealand as the best attacking teams in the Tournament.

Argentina plays a complete attack, 15 men working as one making it very hard for any team to defend.

Australia have some great attacking structures, attacking moves that bring their key players in to the moment in ways that leave defences well and truly behind the eight ball.

With both teams capable of scoring at will, it will be defence that wins the game for either side, a boring cliché in finals footy, but a reality none the same.

This doesn’t mean the game will be a dull affair, much the contrary. I believe we will see a free flowing game where both sides score multiple tries. For this exact reason it will be won on tries scored NOT penalties kicked, making defence critical.

Where Argentina are strong

Attack:

• They use the full width of the field, and have a fast catch pass game that can move the ball effectively and quickly. This stretches defences and widens the defensive channels, allowing the footwork of their outside backs to step and swerve their way through tackles.
• Their forwards are a big part of their attacking structures and they have the skills to contribute in a big way. Many will say that all teams do this, but teams such as South Africa and Australia tend to use their forwards as a way of setting up opportunities for their backs, whereas Argentina and New Zealand are using their forwards as the opportunities!
• They have an ability to maintain momentum in contact, in both the carry and the recycle at the breakdown. Argentinian ball carriers are aggressive, have great leg drive, and know when to go to ground. Going to ground may sound counterintuitive, but when a player carries too long it slows down the breakdown and allows defences to get set. They also have a breakdown philosophy that targets the man and cleans out past the ball. This has a double benefit of taking defenders out of the line as well as providing incredibly fast and clean ball for the next attack.

Defence:

• They have a great low tackle focus, using shoulders to attack the legs and lower torso of attackers. This stops the carry in its tracks, and allows a contest on the ground for the ball – which resulted in 4 turnovers or breakdown penalties in the first half against Ireland. Also, this aggressive low focus prevents the offload game of many teams as the ball carrier is more concerned about self-preservation and ball control that looking for an opportunity to give the ball to someone else.
• Argentina use great line speed across the park. This is particularly evident in the backline from set piece, though also evident as a team throughout the game. There are downsides to this that I will touch on later, but generally it puts the opposition under immense pressure and when combined with their low tackle focus often catches teams on their own side of the advantage line.

Where Australia are strong

Attack:

• Australia uses the full width of the field in attack (sound familiar – young backs & coaches take note).
• The Wallabies have great attacking structures that work to create weaknesses in defensive set-ups. This does place pressure on their execution, and as we have seen at times on the road to the semi finals, if their execution is off, their structures can seem like an all or nothing play and the side goes from organised to dis-organised very quickly.
• Australia’s lineout maul is a genuine attacking weapon. I am hard pushed to remember a game where the Gold jersey has been on display this year where they haven’t either scored off the maul or created pressure that has lead to either a subsequent try or penalty. Teams know it is coming but still have to stop it and all teams have found this difficult to do – even England and Wales.

Defence:

• The Wallabies defend extremely well as a unit. The nation has been asked to ‘Believe’ in the Wallabies, and it is evident that they definitely believe in each other when it comes to defence. There are very few holes, few missed tackles, and tries scored against us often come from attacking errors rather than glaring holes in our defensive structures.
• Like Argentina, we have a line speed approach with a low tackle focus. This allows Pocock, Hooper, Fardy and pretty much everyone else these days to pressure the ball on the ground, but also protects some of our smaller backs from defending against a rampaging hoard of forwards or other big runners.

As you can see, the two teams are evenly matched. I think the set piece will be evenly contested, with Australia having slight ascendency in the lineout. The passion and belief in both teams seems fantastic and is a credit to their coaching, their players and their fans.

So where will it be won, and who will win it?

It will be won with two words – LINE SPEED.

The Wallabies must use their line speed to shut off Argentina’s threatening attack in two ways.

Firstly, it will take time and space off their damaging ball carriers, making it easy to chop them down before they have momentum and put pressure on their breakdown by making their forwards go backwards to cleanout.

Secondly, it will prevent the multi pass play and offload game that makes Argentina so dangerous. This will be a game of chicken in a way, because it is hard to confidently move forward in defence whilst the ball is moving in play, but Australia have the unity in their defensive line to pull it off and must if they are to stop this attack.

For Argentina, line speed is essential to put Australia’s attacking systems under pressure, force errors and disorganise their attack.

As Scotland were able to do so well, against such a strong Australian defence pressuring their attack is a key way to get points.

However, Argentina has one weakness in their defence, and that is they can become weak on the edges, with space in both the 15m channels.

Here line speed can be a double-edged sword, as to prevent teams taking advantage of this they use a rushing defence to cut off the attack before it gets around them, but the same line speed makes it difficult to cover mistakes if they do get around you.

Adam Ashley Cooper’s first try against Scotland off the back of Tevita Kurindrani’s break was a perfect example of this.

It is a difficult one to pick and will make for a cracking match, but with both teams able to attack the full width of the field, I feel it will be the team who defends best that will win – therefore Australia will get through in a thrilling contest.