by Paul Cook –

We continue our look at how Europe’s finest are faring ahead of the Rugby World Cup which kicks-off in September. France, Italy and Scotland do not feature in the Wallabies’ Pool but may well be an opponent in the knockout stages. How are they travelling and what should Australia concern themselves with ahead of a potential clash?

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FRANCE
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With a 41% winning percentage, coach Phillipe Saint-Andre’s tenure has been somewhat of a struggle

The age-old epithet of ‘You never know what you’re going to get from France’ is becoming less and less applicable to Les Bleus under coach Phillipe Saint-Andre. With a 41% winning percentage, what you’re getting from France is actually not a lot and another Six Nations campaign that saw them fail to finish in the top three, for the fourth year in a row, and struggle to throw any real punches at the three nations who ended up sharing top spot wins-wise, offered no justifiable cause for optimism. PSA continues to shuffle his pack, handing out debuts at an alarming rate while failing to settle on any combinations and playing a style that flies in the face of that which he brought to the national jersey with such elan in his playing days.

A home win over Scotland in round one could genuinely have gone either way, indeed the Scots may justifiably feel hard done by at coming away empty handed. Week two saw some semblance of fighting spirit in Dublin, the French fronting up and making life difficult for a decidedly below par Ireland but without any genuine sense that they could go on and actually steal a win. By the time of the limp, listless loss to Wales in front of an increasingly disgruntled Parisian support in game three, even PSA was moved to post-match incredulity at the ineptness of his players, describing them as ‘the Father Christmas of international rugby’ for the way they gave away the presents of points so readily.

A 29-0 victory in Rome was a positive reaction but in truth, probably told you more about the parlous state of affairs at Camp Azzurri than it offered any glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel from Les Bleus. And then came Twickenham. How you view the French performance on the day could go a long way to informing your opinion of their World Cup chances. The odd flash of Gallic brilliance and the racking up of 35pts, their highest ever total in ‘Le Crunch’ was irrefutably positive but the concession of 55pts at the other end – another record – left little room for sympathy. Hampered by an overly powerful club competition, chock-full of foreign talent and light on traditional flair, PSA has five months to turn what appears to be a talented pool of individuals into something resembling a cohesive unit. Having said all that, didn’t they reach the final last time out…

Strengths:

Unpredictability – While frustrating the coach and the supporters with their ability to go from the sublime to the ridiculous from one week to the next – or even in the same game – that unpredictability can also be a weapon. Who knows what they’re going to do!

Scrum – Still a French staple and on it’s day, still one of the best going around. What they miss is the halves combo to use that ball to ignite the backline. But that doesn’t seem to be PSA’s plan…

Weaknesses:

Unpredictability – see above!

Lack of Combinations – PSA has used 82 players in his three and a half year reign and still seems no closer to knowing what his best XV is.

Flyhalf – Clermont Auvergne’s Camille Lopez appeared to be the best hope in quite some time of filling the elusive shoes as France’s on-field general. But a couple of ordinary performances followed by his baffling withdrawal from the squad prior to the England match in a club versus country tug of war, has put his anointment on ice for the time being at least.

Wallaby Watch:

Having whitewashed Les Bleus 3-0 in Ewen McKenzie’s short lived reign back in June 2014, the last time the Wallabies faced France was in November under Michael Cheika. On the night, they were undone at the breakdown, where a fired up French pack put in one of the best performances on PSA’s watch. But with another 11 months of Cheik’s input, one would hope that wouldn’t be the case should they meet in the knockout stages.

Last 5:

2014 France 29–26 Australia

2014 Australia 39–13 France

2014 Australia 6–0 France

2014 Australia 50–23 France

2012 France 33–6 Australia

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ITALY
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Sergio Parisse would be a shoe-in for most teams but stands alone as Italy’s only world class player

If France appear to be a rugby nation who are currently stalling and with little visible signs of forward momentum, Italy are stuck firmly in reverse gear. A promising first year under French coach Jacques Brunel in 2012 was built upon in 2013 as they claimed famous wins over both Ireland and Les Bleus in Rome, adopting a far more expansive style than the 10 man rugby they’d adhered to for the most part before his arrival. But 2014 was an unmitigated disaster. One win from 11 tests saw a reversion to safety first tactics, to the point where if you douse the Azzurri scrum and fight fire with fire in the forward battle, you will eventually come over the top, and more often than not, run riot.

A 9-3 deficit at half-time against Ireland in week one, ended with a 26-3 defeat. It was 15-5 to England at Twickenham a week later when the teams trudged to the sheds – final score, 47-17. And on it goes. 6-0 to France in week four after 40 minutes, it finished 29-0 and the final ignominy, they actually led Wales 13-11 a couple of minutes before oranges in the final match, before capitulating to a 61-20 defeat. A soft underbelly has been ruthlessly exposed and you would have to question fitness levels too given the propensity for second half collapse.

One problem is that there are just not enough quality players being produced through the Italian system. Where is the next Sergio Parisse? Both their full-time professional sides – Benetton Treviso and Zebre – currently occupy the bottom two places of the Pro 12, and the disparity of scorelines between themselves and their Irish, Welsh and Scottish opponents appears to be growing. All the more surprising then, that they should somehow go to Edinburgh and turn over an improving Scotland side 22-19 in week three, in what turned out to be the wooden spoon decider. Nonetheless, the three tries to one victory proved to be the briefest ray of sunshine in an otherwise enveloping gloom. Brunel departs after the World Cup, whomever takes over will be starting from a fairly low base.

Strengths:

Scrum – Although the stats tell you that they lost one more than any other nation in the tournament, like their Argentine cousins, the Italians simply love a good scrum. It is their raison d’etre and their major weapon. Control it, you control them.

Sergio Parisse – Not since George Best emerged from Northern Ireland to bestride the footballing earth has sport seen one player so head and shoulders above anything else in his homeland. Invaluable, talismanic and simply brilliant but sadly for Italy, very much one of a kind.

Weaknesses:

Strength in Depth – As mentioned, there just isn’t a conveyor belt of young talent coming through the Italian system that gives reason to believe their lot will significantly improve in the near future.

Lack of attacking threat – Italy have averaged just under 16pts per game under Brunel, that’s not a tally to send shivers down the spine of any of the global heavyweights come the World Cup.

Lineout – The loss of 14 lineouts across five matches for a success rate of only 77% meant the Azzurri finished a distant bottom of the class when it came to the lineout stats. It goes without saying that that simply isn’t good enough in international rugby.

Wallaby Watch:

Australia have had their struggles with the Azzurri in the past, notably in their own backyard, but the Wallabies have never tasted defeat in any of their 16 matches since they first met in 1983. Outside of the persistent scrum issues against Northern Hemisphere opponents, there seems precious little for Cheika and co to be unduly concerned about in the unlikely event that their paths should cross in early October.

Last 5:

2013   Australia 50-22 Italy (Turin)

2012   Australia 22-19 Italy (Florence)

2011   Australia 32-6 Italy (Auckland – RWC)

2010   Australia 32-14 (Florence)

2009   Australia 34–12 Italy (Melbourne)

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SCOTLAND
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Finn Russell is a hugely talented young flyhalf with plenty of room for improvement

This wasn’t how it was meant to be. A resurgent Scotland, buoyed by the expansive mantra of new coach Vern Cotter and the production line of attacking talent coming through at Glasgow under the tutelage of Gregor Townsend, left many – myself included – with the opinion that they could be a real dark horse for this year’s Six Nations. I didn’t expect them to win it but I’d seen enough in their November tests to suggest that they would be a real handful for all and sundry and a major banana skin to at least one of the pre-tournament favourites.

As it transpired, they could, perhaps should have won in Paris in week one; could and perhaps should have won at home to Wales in week two before the wheels well and truly came off in week three against the Italians. The one game you knew they must have pencilled in as a ‘must win’ and they didn’t turn up and it ultimately left them holding the wooden spoon. They rebounded to put up an impressive first 40 minutes at Twickenham before being overrun after the break and it was a similar case against an admittedly rampant Ireland in their final run-out.

The frustrating thing is, while the record books will show they finished bottom of the pile, they did exhibit genuine moments of positivity that briefly vindicated that pre-tournament buzz. Stuart Hogg was arguably the form fullback of the competition, and in a position where he was competing against the likes of Leigh Halfpenny, Mike Brown and Rob Kearney, that’s no small feat. In Finn Russell, the Scots appear to have found a star of the future. A flyhalf oozing with capricious talent and an old head on young shoulders, some of his decision making, option taking and ability to produce the unexpected was a refreshing delight. In tandem with Hogg and gun centres Mark Bennett and Alex Dunbar, Scotland, a side shorn of genuine try scoring threats across the park for many a long year, suddenly look dangerous – just obviously not enough across this seven week period.

Despite finishing bottom of the pile, they still walked off with the accolades for most defenders beaten in the tournament (Hogg), most ball carries (Hogg again), most turnovers (Blair Cowan) and most tackles made (Jonny Gray). I’m still going to stick my neck out and back them to edge Samoa, Japan and the USA and make the RWC Quarter-Finals, where they will have nothing to lose against Australia, England or Wales in a one-off.

Strengths:

Young talent – This side is chock full of potential, the best group of Scottish players to come through in many a long time. With Glasgow currently flying high at the top of the Pro 12, many of their starlets are now carrying the flag at international level and trying to play a refreshing brand of high octane rugby. You do feel they can only get better, and while the World Cup may be a tournament too soon, this current crop should be looking to make serious headway on the European front over the next couple of years.

Improving lineout – One of Scotland’s major problems under previous head coach Scott Johnson was a severely dysfunctional lineout, a peculiarity given the behemoths in Messrs Richie Gray and Jim Hamilton at their disposal. But coach Cotter has targeted that weakness from the off, turning what was almost a guaranteed loss of possession into one of the strongest parts of their game, their 89.8% success rate over the five games leaving them top of the competition’s lineout rankings.

The Gray brothers – We’ve known about Richie for a while, and if the giant 6ft 10in lock has yet to fully deliver on his immense early potential, he’s still been one of Scotland’s finest in recent years and was starting to show signs of his imperious best before succumbing to an upper arm injury in week two against Wales. A slightly less imposing figure than his elder brother (at only 6ft 6in!), Jonny Gray’s stock continues to rise with each game in the Scottish jersey. A terrific work rate, ability around the park and thirst for the tough stuff, mark him out as a major player in Scotland’s future. Keeping both brothers on the park is paramount to their success.

Weaknesses:

Too young, too soon? – As mentioned in the ‘Strengths’ section, right now, Scotland are a team in transition as they try to integrate their young guns into the cut and thrust of international rugby. While they are still green around the gills and bedding in, it is hard to see them troubling sides like New Zealand and South Africa in particular, teams with years of experience already behind them.

Backrow combinations – While there are plenty of options for Vern Cotter to consider – with Rob Harley, Blair Cowan, Johnnie Beattie, Alasdair Strokosch, Hamish Watson, Adam Ashe and Dave Denton all seeing game time in this competition, and former captain and Saracens regular Kelly Brown surely still in with a shout – he now has only three ‘friendlies’ to settle on a trio that has been a problematic selection for some time.

Wallaby Watch:

Despite their relatively low ranking in recent years, Scotland have been something of a fly in the ointment for the Wallabies, upsetting them twice in their last three meetings. Should the Wallabies win Pool A, there is a very strong chance they will meet the Scots in the Quarter-Finals, although Samoa and maybe Japan, will have something to say about that. If Scotland can recover from their Six Nations failings and continue the upward curve in performance, if not results, they could be a very interesting proposition by the time the World Cup comes around. One thing’s for sure, with the abundance of hungry young talent in situ, they won’t die wondering.

Last 5:

2013   Australia 21-15 Scotland (Edinburgh)

2012   Scotland 9-6 Australia (Newcastle)

2009   Scotland 9–8 Australia (Edinburgh)

2006   Australia 44-15 Scotland (Edinburgh)

2004   Australia 31-17 Scotland (Glasgow)