Six Nations 2014 Preview: Can Wales Make Hat-Trick History?

Captain's Call: L-R Paul O'Connell (IRE), Sergio Parisse (ITA), Sam Warburton (WAL), Chris Robshaw (ENG), Kelly Brown (SCO), Pascal Papé (FRA)

Captain’s Call: L-R Paul O’Connell (IRE), Sergio Parisse (ITA), Sam Warburton (WAL), Chris Robshaw (ENG), Kelly Brown (SCO), Pascal Papé (FRA)

by Paul Cook –

The weight of history may well be the biggest obstacle facing Wales as they embark on the defence of their Six Nations title this weekend. Back-to-back winners in 2012 and 2013, the Welsh are striving to become the first country ever to secure a hat-trick of outright titles in a row since the Championships began back in 1883. France had their name on the trophy four times in succession between 1986 and 1989 but two of those titles were shared and it is indeed the French that recent history dictates should be the side Wales have to beat this time around in order to etch their names into the annals of the game.

The last four post-Lions tournaments have been won by Les Bleus, two by way of a Grand Slam, in a fair indication of the toll a Lions tour inevitably takes on the combined representatives from England, Scotland, Ireland and Wales. Player management has improved immeasurably however, and the majority of those involved in Australia eight months ago do not seem to be suffering any obvious post-Lions hangover with their respective clubs this season. A French win would also require a turnaround of epic proportions given their wooden spoon nadir last year.

England were arguably the best performed Northern Hemisphere side in the November internationals while Ireland produced perhaps the performance of the series, albeit in defeat to the all conquering All Blacks. The bookmakers and pundits alike favour Wales and England with France and Ireland close behind and Scotland and Italy capable of an upset but more than likely making up the numbers. Here’s a closer look at the chances of each nation:

WALESWelsh_Rugby_Union_logo1

Nine of the starting Welsh XV for the tournament’s opening clash against Italy in Cardiff also started the triumphant final Lions Test against Australia last June. Welsh coach Warren Gatland was also the man in charge that night in Sydney and with a Lions series win and three Six Nations titles in six years under his belt, he is a man that demands, expects and achieves success.

Not everything in the Welsh garden is rosy right now though, with injuries ruling out prop Gethin Jenkins and lock/backrower Ryan Jones whilst restricting skipper Sam Warburton to a bench spot for week one at least. Gun centre Jonathan Davies is also a player on the comeback trail but won’t be ready for the Italians and while his Lions partner-in-crime Jamie Roberts will feature, he has had precious little game time to work from due to his injury hampered season with Racing Metro in France.

Lock Ian Evans will sit out the entire tournament after his recent 12 week suspension for stamping and there are also concerns over the form of tighthead Adam Jones, who has struggled to adapt to the new scrum laws and has seen his typically significant influence diminish as a result. However, with names such as Hibbard, Wyn Jones, Lydiate, Tipuric, Faletau, North, Cuthbert and Halfpenny still at their disposal, they are not exactly short of genuine talent.

Week 2 against Ireland in Dublin should be interesting given the fire that still rages through the Emerald Isle regarding Gatland’s infamous omission of national hero Brian O’Driscoll from that successful Lions finale. A warm welcome awaits him at the Aviva Stadium for sure.

“Within the group there is real motivation to make it three titles in a row and make history,” says Sam Warburton. “That’s our only focus now.” If they emerge from Dublin unscathed and with a second victory in the bag, they will head into a seismic clash against the French in Cardiff in round three someway towards achieving their lofty ambitions.


ENGLANDEngland_Rugby

Stuart Lancaster’s side enter their third championship under his tenure in healthy spirits, the confidence their results and performances have engendered in his stewardship only clouded by the decimation of a backline beset by injuries. Manu Tuilagi is the biggest loss, the human wrecking ball is out for another month as he recovers from a torn pectoral muscle but the absence of wingers Marland Yarde and Christian Wade, as well as utility back Ben Foden, may be keenly felt as well. Tuilagi’s usual centre partner Brad Barritt can only make the bench for the opener in Paris after recently recovering from his own injury woes.

They couldn’t quite match their historic victory of 2012 but what England did show in valiant defeat to New Zealand in November was that they have finally hit upon a combination of forwards with genuine thrust, power, speed and aggression and given the average age of the group, the promise of plenty more to come. Billy Vunipola’s introduction at the back of the scrum has given the Red Rose some major inroads over the gain line, while the rebirth on the international stage of Northampton Saints pair Dylan Hartley and Courtney Lawes has been both timely and hugely impressive.

The sticking point may be in that readjusted backline, where Lancaster has given youth it’s head once more with the unleashing of tyro wingers Jonny May and Jack Nowell, while another greenhorn, Luther Burrell, will partner Billy Twelvetrees in the centres. A Stade de France crowd baying for English blood is no place for the feint hearted and the ability of this young trio to deal with the crowd and the occasion and simply play what’s in front of them, will go a long way towards sealing England’s fate.

An opening fortnight that takes in both Paris and Edinburgh – against two teams whose hackles visibly rise at the sight of a white shirt – mean England will have to do it the hard way if they wish to recapture the title they won in 2012. Home games against Ireland and Wales at fortress Twickenham could be decisive.


FRANCEfrance_rugby_ffr

They start as third favourites but as ever with the French, they are capable of anything. Last year’s wooden spoon still smarts and while there were some small signs of revival in November despite defeat at the hands of New Zealand and South Africa, consistency in both form and selection continue to beleaguer this talented squad. The loss of talismanic captain Thierry Dusautoir is also a bitter blow.

The style that coach Philippe Saint-André has committed to with Les Bleus is at odds with the traditional French notion of how the game should be played and how Saint-André – a dashing winger in his day – went about his rugby. That, coupled with poor results, has left the natives markedly restless.

The Top 14 domestic competition may well be the golden handshake for overseas talent but it is having an undoubtedly detrimental effect on the progress of the national side. For example, the combined starting XV’s of Toulon and Clermont Auvergne in their final round of Heineken Cup group matches two weeks ago, saw a mere ten Frenchmen – one-third – take the field for the opening whistle.

Of the 14 premier club sides, only four, maybe five can boast a regular starting berth for a French fly-half, hence Saint-André’s struggle to settle on a permanent pivot. Frederic Michalak, Morgan Parra, Francois Trinh-Duc, Rémi Talès and Camille Lopez have all donned the no.10 jersey in the last two years with debutant Jules Plisson getting the nod for this weekend, but with no specialist fly-half on the six-two bench split Saint-André has opted for, their ability to dictate a match against England if their obviously intended power game fails, is questionable.

A win over their arch rivals in front of a packed Stade de France sets them up nicely for the visit of Italy a week later and two wins from two would put them in prime position for a title charge. Defeat – magnified by the nature of the opposition – could lead to another potential meltdown.

Relive the drama of the 2013 Six Nations – watch video


IRELANDirish_rugby_logo

The back-to-back performances against Australia and New Zealand last Autumn was the story of Ireland’s last few years in a microcosm. Woeful one week against a Wallaby side that was still finding it’s feet under new coach Ewen McKenzie and sublime the next against an All Black side that will stand shoulder to shoulder with the very best the Shaky Isles has ever produced.

The precision, application and execution in the first forty minutes in particular against the All Blacks would have been enough to blow any team on the planet away, the question is, can this Irish side reproduce that level on a consistent basis? If they can do so for five games in a row in this tournament, there’s every reason to consider them as prospective champions but the loss of the almost irreplaceable Sean O’Brien through injury, is a mighty hurdle to overcome.

The only newcomer to the Six Nations coaching ranks in 2014, Kiwi Joe Schmidt has already stamped his mark on the national side, installing the basic tenets of his rugby ideology that have proven to be so successful at provincial level with both Clermont Auvergne and Leinster. Execution is the key word, the ability to perform every rudimentary task with precision and repetition with an emphasis on handling and control.

Schmidt obviously didn’t need to explain too much of what he’s after to the Leinster contingent in his ranks but the early signs are that those from Munster, Ulster and Connacht are buying into his vision too and are enjoying their roles in the revolution. With three sides through to the Heineken Cup Quarter-Finals and currently filling three of the top four places in the Pro 12, there is plenty of positivity around Irish rugby right now and a real buzz that Schmidt’s arrival could be the start of something big.

But while a new dawn rises for the team, the curtain is about to come down on the career of the country’s favourite son as Brian O’Driscoll embarks on his last mission in national colours. The desire to send ‘Dricko’ out as a winner, from those who share their dressing room with him to those who chant his name from the stands,  is palpable and it would be a fitting finale for a true legend of the game were he to take his leave with a championship medal around his neck. It would certainly go some way to making up for the disappointment of that controversial Lions omission.


SCOTLAND

scottish rugby logoScott Johnson’s initial remit when he took temporary charge of Scotland following Andy Robinson’s resignation in November 2012, was to hold the fort for a while before making preparations for the arrival of a new head coach, Vern Cotter, at the end of the 2013-14 season. Assuming the role after a home defeat at the hands of Tonga, expectations were understandably low for last year’s Six Nations tournament but under Johnson’s enthusiastic and streetwise guidance, Scotland prospered, and two home wins over Ireland and Italy were enough to see them finish third, their best result since 2006.

Fast forward to the Autumn internationals however, and old wounds seemed to reappear, with tries once again proving hard to come by and a 28-0 reversal at the hands of South Africa proving to be the harshest of reality checks. Whether Johnson can reignite his players with the belief that they can win the big games will go a long way towards settling their fate this time around but with potential match winners on board in the shape of Greig Laidlaw, Sean Maitland and Stuart Hogg, they do possess more potential cutting edge than in previous seasons.

Giant winger Tim Visser will be a big loss but the return of Lions tourist Hogg from a wrist injury alongside Maitland provides plenty of thrust from the back while the size and combative nature of Jim Hamilton, David Denton and captain Kelly Brown in the forwards means they should be more than competitive at the tackle contest. The surprise for the opener against Ireland in Dublin is the relegation of Lion Richie Gray to the bench, a player who will surely make his impact count when called upon and show exactly why he is Scotland’s most demonstrative player when firing on all cylinders.

Having not won an opening match in the tournament for eight years, victory in Dublin would make a refreshing change for the Scots but win, lose or draw their cup final comes a week later at Murrayfield against the ‘Auld Enemy’ when England arrive in town. Having won only once in their last four visits to Edinburgh, the visitors will be wary of another ambush at the hands of a side that just loves putting a spanner in the English works.


ITALYitaly rugby logo

Statistically, last year was the best ever for the Azzurri since they entered the tournament in 2000. Wins over France and Ireland and the evolution of a more expansive style under the watchful eye of French coach Jacques Brunel gave cause for much optimism regarding the future of Italian rugby. However, a poor Autumn series which saw losses to Australia and Argentina and the narrowest of victories over Fiji, has somewhat stifled their progress and another poor showing by the two Italian clubs in the Pro 12 competition, has reinforced the belief that the talent pool in the country is simply to small for them to take significant steps forward.

Their talisman once again is captain Sergio Parisse, up there with Kieran Read as the best no.8 in the world game, but as phenomenal a player as he is, he will need a few more team mates to step up and go along with him if Italy are to make any further inroads this year. The old warhorse Martin Castrogiovanni now has a century of test caps for his beloved country, pretty impressive for a tight head prop, and his new lease of life with Toulon in the Top 14 should see him maintain his reputation as one of the gnarliest opponents to pack down against, while lock Marco Bortolami and openside flanker Mauro Bergamasco also add plenty of starch up front. Whether there is enough creativity in this side to complement Brunel’s vision is the question.

Like France, a failure to settle on a regular flyhalf has been a concern for Brunel, with Tommaso Allen handed the responsibility against Wales ahead of the more experienced Luciano Orquera. There are high hopes for Allen, who came off the bench to score against the Wallabies back in November on his debut and who has been the subject of an eligibility battle between Italy and Scotland for his services. Having represented Scotland at U17s, 18s and 20s, it was thought he would opt for the country of his father but he opted for his native Italy instead and it may be a decision that coach Brunel reaps the benefits from as he looks to nail down his best side ahead of the 2015 World Cup.

For the time being, trips to Cardiff, Paris and Dublin in the next few weeks would appear to make any improvement on last year’s fourth place finish in the Six Nations highly unlikely, but a final home game against England – the only side in the competition they are still yet to defeat – could be an uncomfortable occasion for the visitors.

Let battle commence…


Sunday 2nd February

Wales v Italy – Millennium Stadium, Cardiff – 1.30am AET

France v England – Stade de France, Paris – 4am AET


Monday 3rd February

Ireland v Scotland – Aviva Stadium, Dublin – 2am AET

 



error: Content is protected !!