Shute Shield: Why each remaining team can and can’t win the 2022 premiership
After one of the tightest Shute Shield seasons on record, the 2022 finals are upon us and this year, we get an extra week of it.
Eight teams remain in the hunt for the Shute Shield premiership, with the top four sides playing this weekend to earn a week off and a spot in a grand final qualifier, while the bottom four sides will play to keep their seasons alive.
Ahead of the opening weekend of the playoffs, we’ve looked for a reason why each of the remaining eight sides can and can’t lift the Shute Shield at Leichhardt Oval on the first weekend in September.
Northern Suburbs (Manly @ North Sydney Oval)
Why they can win it:
Norths are the most complete side in the competition and deservedly claimed the minor premiership. They’ve lost just two of their past 13 matches and take a whole heap of momentum into the playoffs.
A solid tight five, tough backrowers, quality, experienced halves and bucketloads of strike power out wide. It’s hard to fault Zak Beer’s side heading into the playoffs.
Why they can’t win it:
It’s hard to fault Zak Beer’s side, but that’s what we’ve been asked to do. Norths score lots of points but they also concede quite a few as well. They often find themselves in high scoring shootouts and more often than not have had more points in them this year than their opposition.
But finals matches are typically tight, low scoring affairs and Norths haven’t played a lot of them this year. The only real example of Norths playing in a low scoring, finals type match is back in round six when they lost to Sydney Uni 17-12.
Sydney Uni (Randwick @ University No.2)
Why they can win it:
It’s simple, Uni can win the competition on the back of their dominant driving maul. It might seem boring, but it’s a highly effective tactic and if Uni can continually score two to three maul tries in tight finals games, teams are going to struggle to beat them, considering how solid the Students are around the park.
Why they can’t win it:
You’d be brave to back against any Uni team at this time of the year considering their record over the past 20 or so years. This Uni side, particularly in the backline, hasn’t played a whole lot of footy together though. Tom English has only just returned from Japan, Tim Clements has been in and out of the Aussie 7s camp. While they have plenty of depth, forming combinations will be important.
Randwick (Sydney Uni @ University No.2)
Why they can win it:
Randwick have found form in recent weeks since the return of Ben Donaldson and Andrew Deegan and have arguably the most explosive backline in the competition. The Randwick forwards and in particular, the Randwick maul has also benefited from the return of hooker Matt Faessler from the Reds.
Why they can’t win it:
Defence. On average, Randwick have leaked more than 26 points a game this year, almost 10 points per match more than opponents Sydney Uni this weekend.
Manly (Northern Suburbs @ North Sydney Oval)
Why they can win it:
If Manly can rediscover the form that saw them close out tight matches against Norths, Sydney Uni, Randwick and Eastwood earlier in the season, then there is no reason why they can’t give this competition a real shake.
Why they can’t win it:
The issue is, the Marlins have now lost six of their past seven matches and five of those losses have been by four points or less. On the positive, they have been right in the fight. But you have to ask why they’ve struggled to close out so many tight matches.
Eastwood (Eastern Suburbs @ Eric Tweedale Stadium)
Why they can win it:
Eastwood are a team built for finals footy. They like to break teams down over 80 minutes with brutal physicality and clever game management, then pounce on opportunities when they present themselves. They’ve done it time and time again and it would be no surprise to see them do it again this season.
Why they can’t win it:
Instead of facing Eastern Suburbs on a heavy, boggy TG Millner surface this weekend in an elimination final, they now play the Beasties at Eric Tweedale. One of the better and faster surfaces in the competition.
At TG Millner, Eastwood would have likely beaten Easts into submission in a fairly low scoring affair. Instead, they face the in form Beasties on a lightning fast track, not dissimilar to Woollahra, and may find themselves in a high scoring shootout.
Woodies fans will be praying for rain on Saturday.
Warringah (Gordon @ Rat Park)
Why they can win it:
It really depends which Warringah team shows up each week during the playoffs. At their best, the Rats are a genuine premiership chance but they’ve struggled to string consistent performances together in the back half of this season. If they can replicate their performance from the derby win over Manly four weeks straight, Warringah are in the mix.
Why they can’t win it:
It’s hard to look at last week’s loss to West Harbour and suggest the Rats can produce their best four weeks in a row. Mike Ruthven’s side has struggled with consistency and that’s something they are going to need when playing knockout footy.
Gordon
Why they can win it:
Before their last minute hiccup against Hunter in round 18, Gordon were one of the in form teams in the competition and had won six of their past seven matches, including victories over Eastwood, Randwick, Norths and Manly. A lot of those victories came following the return of Jack McGregor and Harrison Goddard who both seem to be thriving since returning to the Shute Shield.
Why they can’t win it:
Gordon have the worst defensive record of any finals side and can’t afford to leak as many points as they have been in the coming weeks. They tend to drift in and out of games over 80 minutes but can ill afford any lapses when playing knockout footy.
Eastern Suburbs
Why they can win it:
On paper, Easts have arguably the best team in the competition and have been hugely disappointing for the best part of the regular season. But the big names have returned and new coach Simon Kneebone’s new style of play seems to have clicked.
All seven opposition coaches know that Easts will get better every week they survive and I reckon they’re all pretty worried about it.
Why they can’t win it:
If they win it, Simon Kneebone has timed his run to perfection. If they have a slip up, at anytime throughout August, questions will be asked.
Saturday’s clash against Eastwood is crucial. If they win that, they’ll likely play Randwick next week in a match they’d fancy their chances in. But they need to get past an Eastwood team with plenty of finals experience this weekend first.