Shute Shield: Final round hypotheticals
The Shute Shield’s top six sides have been locked in for a week or two now but there is still a lot to play for in this weekend’s final round.
With home ground advantage and potentially a favourable run to the grand final - to be played at Leichhardt Oval on Saturday September 1 - here’s what to look for this weekend.
1st) Eastern Suburbs: 68pts*, 13 wins, +140
Easts are on track to claim the minor premiership and a home semi final at Woollahra Oval.
But that could change when the findings of an independent review into the club’s alleged player points cap breach are released on Friday.
If Easts are docked five competition points (based on a ruling that Easts breached the points cap against Southern Districts) the Beasties could still claim the minor premiership by beating West Harbour on Saturday.
If they are docked more than five points, or if they lose on Saturday, they could finish anywhere down to sixth.
2nd) Warringah: 62pts, 12 wins, +121
Warringah were cruising towards the minor premiership but have lost three of their last five matches.
Warringah host Southern Districts this weekend and if they can return to their best, should be good enough to claim maximum points and lock in a home semi final at Rat Park.
If they win, and things don’t go Easts way on and/or off the field later this week, they could even jump into top spot and secure the minor premiership.
If the stars really align, we may even get a Warringah v Manly local derby, at either Rat Park or Manly Oval this week or next.
3rd) Manly: 62pts, 12 wins, +58
After dropping three of five matches after the June long weekend, Manly have bounced back and won three straight.
The Marlins host Norths on Saturday and will guarantee a top three finish and a home semi final at Manly Oval next weekend if they can claim a bonus point win over the Shoremen.
A win without a bonus point could see Manly drop to fourth or fifth, while a loss could even see Manly drop to sixth.
4th) Randwick: 61 pts, 12 wins, +258
On an eight match winning streak, Randwick were stunned by Eastwood last week and that loss could cost them a top three finish.
The defending premiers host Hunter this weekend and on form, you’d expect Randwick to claim maximum points. But we expected a win last week against Eastwood as well.
Randwick need Manly to lose to Norths or Warringah to lose to Souths to push up the ladder.
If teams end up on equal competition points though, Randwick’s massive points differential could come in handy.
5th: Gordon: 61pts, 12 wins, +126
Gordon were docked two competition points earlier this year for an off field management issue and that could really hurt if they end up travelling in the opening week of the finals.
Gordon have to get past Western Sydney before they worry about other results this weekend and that might be easier said than done.
A bonus point win could see Gordon finish anywhere from second to fifth while a loss, could see the Stags drop to sixth if Norths beat Manly.
A Gordon v Easts clash would be pretty fiery at the moment, wouldn’t it?
6th: Northern Suburbs: 58pts, 10 wins, +146
Norths ended a five game winning streak in last weekend’s tight loss to Gordon.
Norths now need to beat Manly and hope other results go their way to move up the ladder. If last year’s grand finalists beat Manly with a bonus point, they could finish anywhere from second to fourth.
If they don’t move up the ladder, they’ll most likely head to Woollahra to play a knockout semi final next weekend.
The Spoilers:
Western Sydney (7th), Hunter (10th), Southern Districts (11th) and West Harbour (12th) all won’t play finals footy but could still play a big part in deciding this year’s premiership.
An upset by any of the four teams above isn’t out of the question.
In the round’s other match, Sydney Uni host Eastwood in a fixture neither club likes to lose.