And then there were six…

After 18 entertaining rounds of Shute Shield rugby, we’ve reached the finals series and are left with six teams that probably all genuinely think they are going to win this year’s competition. 

Very little separates this year’s finalists and you can easily make an argument for each of the six contenders. 

Here’s a few reasons why each team can and can’t win this year’s competition. 

Eastern Suburbs 

Why they can win it:

Under Ben Batger, Easts have been flying in 2024 and head into the playoffs on the back of 11 wins in their past 12 matches. Easts’ set piece is extremely solid and they’ve conceded less penalties at scrum time than any other side this year. 

They’ve also got a genuine game-breaker in Teddy Wilson at No.9, oodles of speed out wide and a cool, calm head in Englishman Chris Bell at the back. 

Why they can’t win it:

As good as Easts have been this year, you can’t ignore the fact that most of the Beasties’ first grade squad are in their first genuine title race. 

Teddy Wilson and Jack Bowen are brilliant footballers. But they are 21 and 20 respectively and will carry a lot of weight on their shoulders in the weeks ahead. 

There is also a truckload of pressure on Easts to win the club’s first title since 1969. 

Warringah

Why they can win it:

We’ve all marvelled at Warringah’s attacking brilliance this year but perhaps the Rats’ biggest improvement under rookie first grade coach Josh Holmes, has been their set piece. 

Warringah have the most efficient set piece in the competition and win 88% of their own lineout ball and 95% at scrum time. 

When you give players like Coby Miln, Ben Woollett and Ben Marr that much ball, they are going to score points. 

Why they can’t win it: 

After a brilliant start to the regular season, the Rats have come back to the pack in recent weeks, losing three of their last six matches against Manly, Randwick and West Harbour. 

Warringah’s three wins in that period were all against sides outside of the top six. 

They’ve also conceded over 23 points a game in those six matches. 

It’s not exactly the formline you’d hope for heading into the playoffs. 

Randwick

Why they can win it: 

Randwick have won nine of their last 10 starts and take plenty of momentum into the finals. Flyhalf Andrew Deegan, who won the Catchpole Medal earlier this week, is a cool, composed flyhalf and has barely missed a kick at goal in the last month. 

The Galloping Greens can score lots of points but they also don’t concede many. Randwick are second only to Gordon (by just one point) for points conceded this season. 

They’ve also been there and done it, which has to help against a bunch of teams that haven’t.

Why they can’t win it:

It’s hard to find too many reasons why Randwick can’t go back-to-back but their lineout is probably the biggest concern. 

Besides Manly, Randwick have the worst lineout of the six finalists and it cost them victory against Eastwood in round 17. 

Randwick have also lost to four of the other five finalists this year, but all of those losses were in the first half of the season. 

Gordon 

Why they can win it: 

After consecutive losses to Randwick and Easts in early July, some were ready to put a line through Gordon. But a gutsy win over Norths a fortnight ago proved the Stags were capable of big scalps. 

Gordon has the best defence in the competition and a solid set piece, both of which are invaluable in tight finals matches. 

Why they can’t win: 

Gordon face a tough must-win road trip to Coogee this weekend and points will be at a premium. 

Unfortunately, all of Gordon’s potential goal kickers are kicking at 66% or less this season, which probably won’t fill travelling Stags’ fans with confidence. 

Collectively, Gordon has kicked at 63% this year compared to Randwick at 78%. Hopefully it doesn’t cost them this weekend.

Northern Suburbs

Why they can win it: 

If you look purely at the numbers, Norths should be a real shot to win this year’s title. They have the most consistent scrum in the competition and one of the best lineouts. 

They’ve also got the best discipline of any side this season and lose less ball at the breakdown than any other team. 

The pressure is also off Norths in comparison to past title runs, where they’ve had to defend their top two finish. From fifth, Norths can act the underdog and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them cause a few upsets along the way. 

Why they can’t win it: 

BUT, it’s been hard to know what to expect from last year’s grand finalists this season. They won just one of six games through the middle of the season, then faced five sides outside of the top six, before losing to Gordon in round 17. 

They were very good last week in a win against Manly, but Norths have been far less consistent this year than they have been in recent seasons. 

There is also a concern that gun fullback Max Burey will be called back to Perth after this week’s game to prepare for “off-season friendlies” to be played later this year for the Western Force. 

It’s more ridiculous than it sounds, but it looks like it’s happening. 

Manly 

Why they can win it:

Manly are another team that have been hard to get a read on this season. At their best, they beat Warringah, Norths and Randwick earlier this year but they were disappointing last week at home against the Shoremen. 

There’s no pressure on the Marlins when they head to Woollahra on Saturday and they have a lot more experience than Easts, particularly in the halves. 

They also know how to win tight, low scoring matches, perhaps more so than any other finals contender. 

Why they can’t win it: 

Manly’s lineout and their ruck speed are a bit of a concern. The Marlins win only 79% of their lineout ball and with most sides scoring more than 50% of their tries from plays the originate from a lineout, that creates an issue. 

Manly also have the slowest average ruck speed of any side in the finals and Charlie Gamble could have a field day at Woollahra this weekend if Manly don’t protect their own ball.