Before the opening kick off of the 2023 Shute Shield season on Saturday, we at Rugby News thought we’d put our collective foots in our collective mouths and come up with a reason why each of the 12 clubs can and can’t win the competition this year. 

While this is largely based on what we’ve learnt from the 12 coaches in recent weeks, it would be greatly appreciated if no reference is made to this come grand final time on the final weekend of August. 

Eastern Suburbs

Why they can win it:

On paper, Easts should be the outright competition favourites. They have a quality coach, a heap of Waratahs and Junior Wallabies who should return in time for the pointy end of the season, and plenty of depth on the back of winning four premierships across lowers grades and colts last year. 

Why they can’t win it:

The downside to having so much talent coming in and out of your side, is that it makes it hard to build consistently throughout the season. Easts paid the price for that in the first half of last year and only just snuck into the finals. That led to a match up against Eastwood in week one of the playoffs and an early start to summer. 

Eastwood:

Why they can win it:

Like Easts, the Woodies also have plenty of Super Rugby talent and a number of players plying their trade overseas for the first half of the regular season. When they are all on the field though, the Woodies will be red hot. They’re also starting to reap the rewards from their vastly improved colts program. Keep an eye out for some new, young Woodies this season. 

Why they can’t win it: 

It’s hard to think of too many reasons why Eastwood can’t win it, but they have lost a lot of experienced first graders from last season and a lot of their other established first graders also won’t be around until later in the year. 

Gordon: 

Why they can win it:

Ignoring the events of the past week, Gordon had reestablished themselves as one of the premier clubs in Sydney, with quality and depth spread throughout grade and colts. History shows us that when clubs get in that sort of position, they’re able to perform in first grade when it matters, just as the Stags did in 2022. 

Why they can’t win it: 

Again, ignoring the events of the past week in case something else happens, Gordon have lost a heap of quality. Reece MacDonald was arguably the most underrated player in the competition and Alex Pohla at his best is close to unstoppable. Both are playing elsewhere in 2023. 

Hunter

Why they can win it:

Hunter took giant strides forward under Bubba Coleman last year and have another full preseason behind them, only their second in history. They’ve also added Alex Pohla to a powerful backline, led by Conor Winchester, who was arguably the most improved player in the competition last season. If they stay all fit and on the park, they are a genuine chance.

Why they can’t win it:

It’s hard to ignore the fact Hunter are going to have to travel a lot more than any other side in the competition and you’d have to think that will take its toll at some point. The Wildfires are also inexperienced at the pointy end of the season, which adds to the challenge.

Manly

Why they can win it:

If Manly can reproduce the form and consistency they showed through the first half of last season, in the back end of this season, then there is no reason why the Marlins can’t return to their first grand final since 2015. A big, tough forward pack and plenty of speed out wide. It’s a formula that has worked at Manly Oval before. 

Why they can’t win it: 

It’s unlikely the Marlins will see much of Langi Gleeson this year. They’ve also lost Kemu Valetini to the Fijian Drua and Hunter Ward could be in and out of the Waratahs squad. They are three big outs for a team that still have some questions to answer after a disappointing end to 2022. 

Northern Suburbs

Why they can win it:

It feels like the Shoreman are due. Norths were arguably the best side in 2021 before the competition was cancelled, then minor premiers last year. Zak Beer is a quality coach and has added more talent and depth to a side that hasn’t been far off in recent years. 

Why they can’t win it: 

While they might get a player or two back from overseas, Norths won’t have an influx of Super Rugby players returning as the season heats up. They may miss out on the momentum other sides gain. Or it could work in their favour. There also could be a few scars come finals time after missing a big opportunity last season. 

Randwick

Why they can win it:

With club legend Steve Hoiles back at Coogee Oval and Eddie Jones popping his head in from time to time, it feels like Randwick are ready to take the next step. They’ve recruited well, particularly in the forwards and have quite a few Waratahs to return, if they aren’t in Jones’ World Cup squad. 

Why they can’t win it: 

Randwick haven’t quite got the formula right for a while now. They overtook Sydney Uni as the premier colts program a few years back, but failed to convert that into first grade success. While their is no shortage of young talent at the club, it’s been older, hardened teams that have tasted premiership success more often than not in recent years. 

Southern Districts

Why they can win it:

A premiership probably isn’t the main focus for Souths this year but it would be great to see the Rebels get back to their big, bruising best, particularly when at home at Forshaw. It’s also worth keeping an eye on some talented local juniors pushing into first grade, led by Junior Wallabies centre Jackson Ropata. 

Why they can’t win it: 

We’ve seen clubs move up the ladder quickly, but typically a rebuild like this takes a few years. If things go right, finals certainly aren’t out of the question and that should be the Rebels first goal. 

Sydney Uni 

Why they can win it:

Because history shows Uni have done this time and time again. The conveyor belt could be on full display again this season. 

Why they can’t win it: 

They’ve lost 16 players from last year’s top squad. It’s a massive amount of turnover. A number of senior players, guys like Mitch Whiteley, Rohan O’Regan, Ben Hughes and Hamish Dunbar have also retired. It might take some time to replace those sorts of figures within the group. 

Warringah 

Why they can win it:

Warringah are a club that seem to have managed the balancing act between development and recruitment really well. The club worked hard on their colts program and have benefited from watching those young players push into grade. Then when they have recruited, they’ve recruited well and they’ve recruited players that typically hang around for a while. It’s a good formula and it will keep them in the mix. 

Why they can’t win: 

The Rats might just be a year of two away from being a genuine premiership threat. They lost Ben Marr and Ben Woollett, arguably their two best players, last year and while there is a heap of young talent pushing through, they might not be ready just yet. 

West Harbour

Why they can win it:

New coach Cam Treloar won two Shute Shield premierships and knows exactly what it takes. He also spent a lot of time in professional rugby and is well positioned to get the best out of a talented roster that probably hasn’t lived up to its potential in recent years. 

Why they can’t win: 

The Pirates were in a bad place a few years back and last year under Joe Barakat, they took a big step forward. While that improvement will likely continue, a better barometer for West Harbour this year might be the consistency of their performances and their results across grade and colts. A move up the Club Championship ladder would be a fantastic sign for a club with bucketloads of potential.

Western Sydney

Why they can win it:

After a massive 2022, the Two Blues have recruited extremely well again over summer. If he plays the majority of the season in the Shute Shield, Rahboni Warren-Vosayaco should be a short priced favourite for the Catchpole Medal. He’s got a point to prove this year and his preseason form suggests he’ll prove it. Wiseguy Faiane and Otumaka Mausia are also good game managers who can get the best out of the players around them. 

Why they can’t win it:

Consistency is going to be the biggest thing for Western Sydney as they look to avoid sport’s dreaded “second year syndrome.” Last year, the Two Blues beat both grand finalists but then dropped other games that they should have won and just missed out on the playoffs. They can’t afford to do that this season.