With six teams remaining, we’ve got three consecutive weeks of finals footy to look forward to and it’s going to be seriously tight. 

All six sides would honestly believe they can win this year’s premiership and all of them are probably right. 

But there’s a lot of footy to be played between now and Shute Shield grand final day at Leichhardt Oval on Saturday August 26. 

Ahead of the opening weekend of the playoffs, we thought we’d take a look at one reason why each team can and can’t win the competition. 

Northern Suburbs

Why they can win it? 

The minor premiers head into the finals full of confidence on the back of 10 wins from their last 11 matches. They have a quality, experienced side and have been regulars in the playoffs in recent years. 

They are lethal on turnover ball, scoring 21.4% of their points from this, well above the competition average of 12.9%. 

They’ll also play at North Sydney Oval this week and next week, where they’ve only lost twice this year. 

Why they can’t win? 

Set piece is crucial come finals time and Norths have some issues with their lineout. The Shoremen lose 21.6% of their lineout ball. That’s the worst of any finals team and the worst of any side besides Souths and the Two Blues. 

Manly, in comparison, lose just 10.9% of their lineout ball. 

Randwick 

Why they can win it? 

After starting the season with just two wins from their first five matches, Randwick have been red hot and have lost just one of their last 13 matches. 

If you exclude a round 9 loss to Randwick and a draw with Manly in round 13, you’ve got to go back to April to watch the Wicks’ last loss. 

They miss less tackles than any other side in the competition and can score points at will. They also finish halves extremely well. Randwick scores 65.9% of their points in the final 20 minutes of each half, which suggests they’re able to match sides, then kick up a gear when it matters. 

Why they can’t win it? 

By the numbers, Randwick have the worst scrum in the competition. They lose 16% of their scrum ball and on average give away 2.94 penalties at scrum time per match. 

Hunter, who have the best scrum in the competition, lose just 4% of their scrum ball and concede 0.78 scrum penalties a game. 

There is also going to be a mountain of pressure on any Randwick side that edges towards a breakthrough premiership and this current group hasn’t been in this position before. It’ll be interesting to see how they hold up. 

Eastwood

Why they can win it? 

Eastwood just know how to get things right at this time of year and although they’ve been extremely inconsistent through the back half of the season, the Woodies best rugby can beat anyone. 

Eastwood have scored more points than any other side this year, with an average of over 34 points per match. 

They’re also solid at set piece time and have given away fewer penalties this year than any other side (but also received the most yellow cards. How does that work?). 

Why they can’t win it? 

While Eastwood score lots of points, then concede plenty as well. Only Warringah and Souths conceded more points so far this season. 

In the last three weeks, they’ve scored close to 30 points every match but conceded far too many. They lost to Norths by 5, then beat Uni and Manly by two points. 

Eastwood have conceded 82 tries this year. Gordon, Manly and Norths have conceded 58 tries, and Randwick have only conceded 54. 

Manly 

Why they can win it? 

Manly have the best young talent in the competition. It’s mind-blowing when you consider they’ve also produced 22-year old Wallaby Langi Gleeson and last year’s Catchpole Medal winner, 23-year old Max Douglas, who is over in Japan.  

Zac Barnabas is a superstar. He’s claimed 39 pilfers this year. The next best in the competition is Gordon’s Milan Basson with 18. He’s 22 and he’s claimed double the turnovers of the next best player. It’s seriously impressive. 

Likewise, Yool Yool has six more line breaks than any other player in the competition.

Manly have the individual brilliance to turn any match on its head. 

Why they can’t win it? 

The form guide doesn’t make for pretty reading for Manly fans. The Marlins have only won two of their last eight matches, albeit with two draws to their name. 

More of a concern though is the fact Manly have struggled to close out tight matches. 

In that eight game run, they’ve lost four matches by four points or less, then drew two other games. 

They’re in every match, but something seems to be missing. 

Gordon

Why they can win it? 

Like Eastwood, Gordon have turned into a side that find a way to get things right at the pointy end of the season.

They were brilliant in a 36-7 win over Sydney Uni last week and look to be a far better side with Rodney Iona back in the No.10 jersey. 

The Stags also spend the least amount of time with ball in hand of the six remaining sides. In tight, finals matches, the tactic to kick the ball and put pressure on your opposition can work wonders, particularly in the wet. 

Gordon average 44.1% possession. Eastwood and Manly both average just under 53%. 

Why they can’t win it? 

While Gordon have won four of their last five matches to scrape into the finals, they’ve had a fairly soft draw. 

While they were brilliant against Uni last week, but before that they lost to the Two Blues and only just beat Warringah and West Harbour. 

In June, they lost four straight matches against Manly, Randwick, Norths and Eastwood. 

It’s really going to depend on which Gordon side turns up over the next few weeks. 

Hunter 

Why they can win it? 

This one is pretty simple. The Wildfires have the best scrum in the competition and one of the best mauls in the competition. 

They score close to 30% of their tries off the back of scrums and their maul is awfully tough to stop close to the line. When they get into side’s A-Zone, they typically walk away with points, which is a must at this time of the year. 

They’ve also got plenty of strike and speed out wide and are one of the best momentum teams in the competition. 

Why they can’t win it? 

Like Manly, Hunter’s back end of the regular season didn’t quite go to plan. The Wildfires have won just one of their last four matches and just four of their last 11. 

It’s not ideal, particularly when the Newcastle side potentially faces three consecutive road trips to Sydney to play must win games. 

There is also a bit of a question mark around Hunter’s ability to defend counter attack play. The Wildfires concede 21.4% of their tries from counter attack. Norths and Randwick concede 6.9% and 7.4% respectively. 

They’ll need to tighten that up to challenge Norths this weekend.