The 2022 Shute Shield season kicks off this weekend and before a ball is kicked, we thought we’d get way ahead of ourselves and highlight a few reasons why each team can and can’t win this year’s premiership. 

Eastern Suburbs – Last year: 3rd after 10 rounds

Why they can win:

Easts have picked up a quality Kiwi coach and a handful of quality Kiwi recruits to bolster their already impressive squad, that will be stacked with Super Rugby talent at the back end of the season. At full strength, they’re arguably the best team in the competition on paper. 

Why they can’t win:

There are a lot of moving parts at Woollahra. New coach Simon Kneebone has admitted that he’s introduced a new playing style this year and thrown a number of new players into the first grade side for week one. 

It could take them half a season to learn to play together, then they’ll have to start all over again when they welcome back five plus Waratahs into their starting XV halfway through the year.  

Eastwood – Last year: 4th after 10 rounds

Why they can win:

Eastwood have been there and done it time and time again. In 2020, no one besides the TG Millner faithful thought they were a chance of coming close to a  premiership but they still came within one dodgy scrum call of lifting the Shute Shield. They’ve also got great game managers in Chris Bell and Tane Edmed who both thrive in tight, tricky situations. 

Why they can’t win: 

The Woodies have lost a third of their best XV to Super Rugby sides since last season, plus they’ll be without injured No.8 Pat Sio. Sure, they’ll get most of the Super Rugby boys back at some stage, but it isn’t always easy to slot them back in. 

Gordon – Last year: 5th after 10 rounds

Why they can win:

While a number of big names have moved on, the core of Gordon’s 2020 Shute Shield premiership side remains at Chatswood Oval and they’re all hungry for more success. Gordon’s colts program has also rivalled Sydney Uni’s over the past 3-4 years and a lot of those players are now ready to make their mark in senior footy. 

Why they can’t win:

Billy Melrose admitted his side wasn’t physical enough to match it with the top teams last season and he was right. Gordon, particularly the younger players in the group, will need to muscle up and play 20 plus games of hard, tough rugby to win another competition. 

Hunter Wildfires – Last year: 9th after 10 rounds

Why they can win:

Hunter were just starting to hit their straps last year when the competition was cancelled after 10 rounds. After two interrupted seasons, the Wildfires head into 2022 on the back of the most comprehensive preseason they’ve ever had, plus they’ve attracted some classy first graders from other clubs back to Newcastle to play locally. 

Why they can’t win:

While the Wildfires have huge potential on paper, Scott Coleman’s side has learned over the past two years that it isn’t easy to throw a team of superstars together and get everyone on the same page quickly. There has been huge turnover in the Hunter again over summer and the Wildfires will need to find continuity to compete. 

Manly – Last year: 11th after 10 rounds

Why they can win:

Manly have been struggling for the past few seasons but new coach Phil Blake seems confident that his side has turned a corner over summer. The Marlins have some of the best young players in the competition at Manly Oval and could be a real threat if they can get Hunter Ward, Max Douglas, Yool Yool and Langi Gleeson all firing and on the field at the same time. 

Why they can’t win:

The Marlins have lost quite a bit of experience from a side that could only finish 11th last season. While they have plenty of young talent, it will still take some time for some of the young Manly players to adjust to senior footy. 

Northern Suburbs – Last year: 2nd after 10 rounds

Why they can win:

Northern Suburbs fans would have really liked their chances of winning another flag last season, before Covid cancelled the season. Of last year’s main contenders, Norths are the only side to retain the majority of their group and their coaching staff, plus they’ve recruited nicely to add further depth. 

Why they can’t win:

The Shoreman’s set piece has been a little shaky at times over the past few years and if the trends continue, it will be very hard to win the competition without a dominant scrum. 

Southern Districts – Last year: 8th after 10 rounds

Why they can win: 

While they haven’t got the results they’ve wanted, Souths have been rebuilding quite nicely under Todd Louden over the past two interrupted seasons and might be ready to make a move up the Shute Shield ladder. They’ve continually added class and experience to the group and have a big, tough forward pack that is starting to look similar to previous Rebels’ teams. 

Why they can’t win:

Souths have struggled for consistency in recent years. At their best, they’ve matched it with and beaten some of the best sides in the competition but they haven’t managed to string together back to back consistent 80 minute performances too often. There’s a big difference between being in the contest and winning it and Souths’ will need to solve that this season. 

Sydney University – Last year: 1st after 10 rounds

Why they can win:

Because they’re Sydney Uni and if anyone can rebuild in a six month period, it’s the Students. They’ve done it time and time again and they’ve picked up a very handy new coach in Sean Hedger. 

Why they can’t win:

Sydney Uni have lost 12 players from last year’s first grade side and their coach to professional contracts overseas. It’s a great achievement for the club but it does present some problems in the short term. 

Randwick – Last year: 7th after 10 rounds

Why they can win:

Randwick could add as many as five Waratahs to their backline at the pointy end of the season. Watching Ben Donaldson, Will Harrison, Izzy Perese, James Ramm and Triston Reilly all run around in their prime on a Shute Shield field would be pretty exciting to watch. 

Why they can’t win:

Randwick have had plenty of potential and plenty of Super Rugby talent in and around their squad for the best part of the last decade and still don’t have anything to show for it. Ned Hanigan, Izzy Perese, Ben Donaldson and Will Harrison will all likely be picked in an extended Wallabies squad later this year, which might limit the time they spend at Coogee Oval. 

Warringah – Last year: 5th after 10 rounds

Why they can win:

Ben Marr is arguably the best non-contracted player in the country and will be playing for a Super Rugby contract this year after missing most of 2021 through injury. A bunch of his young Warringah mates are also starting to show their potential, which is going to make the road trip to Rat Park a tough one. 

Why they can’t win:

The Rats are still quite young and they’ve lost a huge amount of experience over the past few years. The rebuild has started but it might not be fully completed this season. 

West Harbour – Last year: 10th after 10 rounds

Why they can win:

The Pirates have recruited really well over summer. Presley Tufuga should be one of the top players in the competition this year. They’ve also welcomed back Joe Barakat who knows how to tighten up a team’s set piece and defence. 

Why they can’t win:

The Pirates can score plenty of points but they need to find a way to stop the other teams outscoring them. Defence has been a big issue at Concord in recent years and it’ll be interesting to see how long it takes Barakat to fix that.

Western Sydney – Last year: 13th after 10 rounds

Why they can win:

I think every Shute Shield fan wants to see Western Sydney do well this year, just not against their side. 

Sailosi Tagicakibau and his assistants have done an incredible job to bring a huge number of players back to Western Sydney and a lot of them are really handy players. A trip to Merrylands won’t be an easy one this season.

Why they can’t win:

Tagicakibau admitted his completely new look side are pretty much starting from scratch this season. While they’ll have no shortage of talent, the Two Blues will need to build combinations quickly. It’s hard to know just how long that will take but there are a number of other sides in the same boat.