Shute Shield: Where will your team finish at the end of the regular season?
Just when it appeared as though the road towards this year’s finals was beginning to look clearer, a number of surprising results over the weekend have shaken things up dramatically.
With four rounds remaining, Sydney Uni appear to be the only side almost certain of playing finals footy in 2018. Below the Students, seven sides will battle for the final five playoff spots and will all be eager to finish as high as they can on the ladder to secure home ground advantage during the opening fortnight of the finals.
Sydney Uni are a win clear of second spot and after a bye next week, finish the year with matches against Souths, Randwick and Gordon. Even if Uni were to lose to Souths in round 16, you’d expect the Students to win their final two games and finish the regular season as minor premiers or in the top three at the very least.
After that, it gets a little trickier.
Following a bye, Norths are now second on 52 points but face a tough month of rugby in the weeks ahead. They host Souths, Wests and Easts next and Randwick in the final round. The Shoreman’s first three opponents are all dangerously desperate and will all be tough to beat while Randwick will almost certainly cause a few upsets in the coming weeks.
Three wins will guarantee Norths a spot in the finals, anything less could see them fall right down the ladder and potentially even miss the playoffs.
Manly are third on 51 points and scored a late try on Saturday to salvage an important draw against Randwick.
While you’d expect the Marlins to beat both Gordon and Parramatta, they’ll still most likely need to beat either West Harbour on Saturday or Eastwood in the final round to guarantee their spot in the playoffs.
With Sam Lane and Denis Pili Gaitau also both expected to leave for overseas in the coming weeks, Saturday’s game against the Pirates becomes even more crucial. A win at Manly Oval will help Marlins fans sleep easy. A loss will pile pressure on Billy Melrose’s side and will set up a final round blockbuster against the Woodies.
Warringah are fourth on 50 competition points but also don’t have it easy in the coming weeks. They travel to Coogee this weekend to face a Randwick side that looks more dangerous each week, then play Eastwood, West Harbour and Souths.
Like Manly, the Rats can take plenty of pressure off themselves by beating Randwick this week and Eastwood at home next weekend but that might be easier said than done. If they fail to do that, they’ll likely need to beat both Wests and Souths in the final fortnight to guarantee their spot in the playoffs.
That’s enough to scare even the toughest Hillbilly just a little.
In fifth is Eastwood on 49 points. The Woodies loss to West Harbour may come back to bite them. They host Gordon this week and have a bye in round 17, but travel to play Warringah and Manly on either side of their week off.
Presuming Eastwood beat Gordon with a bonus point, they’re still going to need to beat either the Rats or Marlins on the road to book a spot in the finals. Their round 18 clash at Manly Oval looks like it will have serious implications for a handful of teams.
Easts also stumbled on the weekend and are now sixth on 45 points after losing to Southern Districts.
The Beasties will need to beat Parramatta this week and have a bye in the final round but face tough matches against Randwick and Norths in between.
Eastern Suburbs derbies are typically tight affairs that can go with way, regardless of form.
Easts are expected to welcome back several Waratahs after the Super Rugby season, but they’ll need to get the job done against Parra and Randwick to give their big names a chance to prove their worth.
After three straight losses, West Harbour are back in finals calculations following back to back wins over Souths and Eastwood.
While the Pirates are a far better side under Todd Louden, it’s still tough to know what you’re going to get each week.
They face Manly, Norths and Warringah on the run and you could make a case for the Pirates winning or losing all three matches.
Realistically, they’ll need to win at least three of their final four and while you’d expect the Pirates to be too good for Parramatta in the final round, they’ll need to beat at least two other sides ahead of them on the ladder to book their spot in the playoffs.
One thing is for sure though. If the Pirates can end their finals drought, they’ll make a lot of opposition coaches nervous in August.
In eighth is Southern Districts on 44 points. While theoretically Souths have the most work to do of any side left in finals contention, the Rebels have a lot of things in their favour.
They welcomed back flyhalf Rohan Saifoloi for Saturday’s win over Easts and halfback Dewet Roos and centre Apo Latunipulu are expected to be back this week. Those three haven’t played a match together all season and form a lethal combination behind a big forward pack when at their best.
Souths play Norths, Sydney Uni, Gordon and Warringah to end the year and will need to win three or four of those matches to play in the finals.
They are a momentum team though and will be at home for their clashes against Uni and the Rats. Like West Harbour, they’ll be seriously dangerous if they can slip into the finals.
So in summary, the race to the playoffs is seriously wide open and almost every match in the coming month will have some sort of finals implications.
The most exciting part of all of this though, is that every side, from first to eighth have a realistic shot at winning the premiership.
Last year fifth and sixth beat first and second in the opening week of the playoffs and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that happen again.
Throw in the Waratahs in the finals and it’s going to be a seriously good few weeks of footy.