Intrust Shute Shield: The run home
By Sam Ryan
There’s still plenty to be decided in the final four rounds of the Intrust Shute Shield.
Whilst it seems Manly and Eastwood will battle for the minor premiership, little separates the six sides that remain in finals contention, making for an interesting month of rugby to round out the regular season.
To simplify things, we’ll take a look at each of the remaining nine finals contenders and assess their chances in the coming weeks.
Manly (60pts, +239) – Norths (H), Warringah (A), Gordon (A), Randwick (H)
After losing just one match so far in 2015, it’s hard to tip against Manly in any of their remaining four matches. Warringah will be tough to beat at home in the local derby, as will Randwick in the final round, however presuming Damien Cummins doesn’t choose to rest players in the coming weeks, you’d expect the Marlins to go into the finals 17-1.
Eastwood (59pts, +382) – West Harbour (A), Easts (H), Randwick (A), Warringah (H)
Similarly, Eastwood will be tough to beat in the final four rounds. Although Randwick and Warringah could very well be playing for their seasons when they face the Woodies in the final two rounds, it’s hard to look past the 2014 premiers depth and class. Boasting a superior points differential to Manly, the Woodies could steal the minor premiership with a few bonus points in the coming weeks.
Southern Districts (46pts, +126) – Sydney Uni (A), Randwick (A), Penrith (H), West Harbour (A)
Souths were woeful against Warringah last week, but welcome back captain Jed Holloway for the remainder of the season. The Rebels lost to both Uni and Randwick earlier this year and will need to be at their best for both clashes, however you’d expect last year’s grand finalists to win at least one of those matches. Despite the departure of Ben Volavola after the Randwick match, Souths should hold onto third place and host a semi final in week one.
Warringah (46pts, +107) – Penrith (A), Manly (H), Sydney Uni (H), Eastwood (A)
Warringah beat a top three side for the first time in 2015 last week and will take plenty of confidence from their victory over the Rebels. The Rats forwards did their premiership credentials no harm with an impressive performance and their backs were at their usual best. Despite that, Warringah have a tough run into the finals facing Manly, Uni and Eastwood in the final three rounds. If they are a genuine premiership threat this year, you’d like to see them win two of those final three matches.
Randwick (43pts, +52) – Easts (H), Souths (H), Eastwood (H), Manly (A)
Randwick have struggled with consistency throughout 2015 and that was evident in a big loss to West Harbour in round 13. Shannon Fraser has put a lot of faith in the clubs young stars and time will tell if that investment pays dividends this season. Facing the top three sides in the final three rounds won’t be easy, adding to the importance of this weekend’s clash against rivals Easts.
Sydney Uni (43pts, +123) – Souths (H), Gordon (H), Warringah (A), Norths (H)
Despite a loss to Randwick in round 12, Sydney Uni have been building momentum nicely in recent weeks and will continue to add Super Rugby experience ahead of the finals. With Chris Malone announcing his departure at the end of the season, the Students have plenty to play for and will be a serious threat come finals time. A final round clash against Norths will be important.
Northern Suburbs (40pts, +130) – Manly (A), West Harbour (H), Easts (H), Sydney Uni (A)
Norths are another side that have struggled with consistency this year, but have been impressive at times, particularly last week against Gordon. Led by the tireless Will Miller and skipper Ben Matwijow, the Norths forwards play well above their weight and their backs have plenty of spark when given the opportunity. If they lose to Manly this week, their final three matches become must wins. A trip to University Oval in round 18 may determine their season.
West Harbour (34pts, +42) – Eastwood (H), Norths (A), Parramatta (A), Souths (H)
After running through Randwick in round 13, it seemed the Pirates were on their way to the finals, but a disappointing loss to Uni last week has made things tough. At their best, West Harbour can challenge any team in the competition but consistency has been absent for most of the year. The Pirates must win at least three of their final four matches and whilst that won’t be easy, it’s hard to rule them out.
Gordon (31pts, -11) – Parramatta (H), Sydney Uni (A), Manly (H), Penrith (A)
Whilst Gordon remain a mathematical chance of playing finals footy this year, they must win their final four matches. Although it’s hard to see the Highlanders beating Uni or Manly, an upset isn’t off the cards, particularly with future superstar Jack Dempsey showing why the Waratahs signed him until the end of 2017.