By Brett McKay

You’re a bold punter if you’ve already started writing teams off after two rounds of Super Rugby. With 13 teams with at least one win to their name now, it’s fair to say there’s still a lot of water to go under a lot bridges before we have a clearer picture of who will and won’t contend for the 2016 title.

But that’s not to say that two games aren’t enough to start forming some opinions and raising some queries.

And while broadly laying the boot into the Reds, or into the Waratahs’ scrum more specifically might be the easy targets right now, those lines of questions are easy to find elsewhere. Instead, here’s some curly questions out of Round 2 coming from some different directions.

Is a 50% discount for accepting a guilty plea too much?

Waratahs hooker Tolu Latu dodged a bullet on Sunday, when his potential two-week suspension for striking was halved as reward for him saying, “yep, I did it.”

In his ruling, SANZAAR Duty Judicial Officer Robert Stelzner SC stated:

“I did not consider there to be any aggravating factors to take into account as the player’s record with a suspension for a lifting tackle [against the Crusaders last season] did not give him the status of a repeat offender of the Laws of the Game. I did take the player admitting guilt for the offence into account as a mitigating factor as well as his show of remorse for the offending. This entitles the player up to a 50 per cent reduction in sanction which I applied. This results in a one-week suspension being imposed on the player.”

There is certainly an argument as to just how meaningful a Sydney University trial game really would be to the heir apparent to the Tahs’ no.2 jersey, but that’s another argument for another day. After all, it’s hardly the Waratahs’ fault that they had a bye in Round 3, and it’s certainly not their fault Duty Judicial Officer Stelzner reduced the suspension down to one week.

Most offences have a low-medium-high ranking to them, with which comes an applicable entry point for possible sanction. In Latu’s case, his was deemed at the low end, putting two weeks on the table. Had his punch being rated in the medium range, he’d have been looking at five weeks as an entry point.

I don’t have too much trouble with the low-medium-high ratings. It simplifies things pretty well, and I certainly wouldn’t want anything so convoluted as the NRL or AFL grading systems introduced.

What I do wonder about is such a healthy discount simply for accepting the guilt. By all means, offer a discount for an early or upfront admission of guilt, but what’s the point in imposing sanctions if a simple, ‘yeah, my bad’ is enough to halve it? Particularly when the guilt is obvious.

For the sake of example, a clear headbutt ruled to be at the top end of Law 10.4(a) ‘Striking with head’ carries an entry point of at least eight weeks’ suspension. Would we really want that halved to say, four weeks simply because the offender said “yes, I did it”?

It seems to me to be too great a discount. If we truly are trying to stamp acts of foul or dangerous play out of the game, why does a simple admission of guilt entitle the offender a benefit of that magnitude?

Have we overstated the Blues’ and Rebels’ 2016 prospects?

After the Aucklanders really took it to last year’s Champions, the Highlanders, 33-31 and the Melbournians turned up the attacking spark to put the Force away in the first round, plenty of commentators and rugby forum types perhaps had the playoff hopes of both sides a little further advanced than reality.

That soon came sinking back to earth when both sides turned out second round performances well under the higher expectations that had been set.

The Blues missed 27 tackles and could only hold 31% of possession in their 28-13 touch-up at the hands of the Crusaders in Christchurch. The Rebels similarly missed 26 tackles in their 45-25 loss to the Bulls, but without the hulking boot of Reece Hodge and with Jack Debreczini’s boot misfiring, could only win 30% of territory.

In truth, both sides have a bit of work to live up to the belief that they’re ready to push for the playoffs, and this reality check perhaps couldn’t have been better timed. Better to find this out in Round 2 than Round 15.

Just how tight will Africa 2 become once the Jaguares get into the Super Rugby routine, and the Sharks’ cavalry return?

The Lions’ second win out of Africa, and just their fifth overall in New Zealand is something we should be giving more credit to. They play a very simple game exceptionally well, have a good set piece, and an excellent backrow unit that is going to cause problems for most teams in 2016. They were perhaps a touch unlucky not to make the playoffs last year, and already look better this season.

Then there’s the Jaguares. Imagine how good they might be if they can play with 15 for the full eighty minutes? Even scarier, how good might they be if they just played with 13 for the full eighty?! They have the bye this week, and host their first home game in Round 4. Already, it’s clear set piece and the maul is important to them, but there is also plenty of strike power out wide.

And what of the Sharks? Their win over the Jaguares was a lot closer to the classically brutal Sharks’ games of yore, and I don’t mind admitting that they’re currently playing a lot better than I expected them to with the injury toll they started the season with. So how good could they become when Patrick Lambie and Jacques Potgieter and company return?

These three teams will take points off each other all season, meaning that the eventual conference winner could have the lowest points tally of the four – unless of course they all really cash in against the weaker Africa 1 opponents. It kind of sets up a feast of famine situation; all three teams deserve to top the conference on current form, but only one will. And the other two could miss the wildcards completely.

Is the Western Force rebuild properly happening?

The hint was there in the way Ben Tapuai and the Force’s back three ran with freedom at will against the Rebels in Round 1, but it was the way they played with patience and smarts in Round 2 and in weather more suited to ducks than rugby that should tell us this is a very different Western Force team in 2016.

Against a Queensland Reds side who never looked like firing a shot in the wet Brisbane conditions, the Force played a smart territory game off the boot of ex-Eastern Suburbs and NSW Country flyhalf Jono Lance. Lance also maintained his 100% goalkicking start to the season, which always kept their nose ahead of the Reds.

Then, with the siren sounding, and a large portion of the crowd already leaving, Lance spotted his former Brisbane schoolboys and Reds teammate Luke Morahan in space, and put the sneaky kick through.

Western Force teams of old wouldn’t have played that game out beyond to 80^th minute like this, and it’s enough to tell me that this is a team on the improve. And furthermore, we all know how the Reds reacted to the loss.